We have a few case list updates from Newark as well as a few argument additions.
Currently, there are negotiations to increase autonomy (Barber of the Financial Times)
Catalonia won’t be able to get into the EU. When rejected by the EU they will build ties with China (example of Greece), China’s influence is bad — roll back human rights, undermine sanctions, China will lend them money and engage in predatory lending (example of Africa where this led to negative growth)
Majority of the people in Catalonia support staying in Spain — Abandoning Catalonia self-d, democracy
Independence means Catalonia’s credit rating decreases, it can’t pay off debt, and then somehow Spain’s credit rating also decreases. This spirals out of control, with a worst case scenario eurozone crisis.
Contention 1 – Economy
Subpoint A says Catalonia’s economy will collapse because of the inability to get into the EU (at best, it would take years for this to happen). They say that without the EU, there will be high tariffs and the need for a new currency. They have the 25-30% GDP decrease, unemployment doubles card (Bosch of CNBC).
Subpoint B says Spain’s economy gets worse because Catalonia contributes a lot to its GDP, has 25% of its exports, and attracts the most FDI. They say that a 1% decrease in GDP typically leads to a 2% increase in unemployment.
Contention 2 – Balkanisation of Europe
The Basque region will be encouraged to secede if Catalonia is granted its independence. This will cause economic volatility.
Should implies a moral imperative. Catalonia split leads to the collapse of Rajoy’s conservative government. This government is bad because they restrict refugees. Rajoy supports white nationalism/racist ALT right movements in Europe
Catalonia’s government would take in a lot of refugees.